Great Britain, on premise: weak September, recovery in October
The British on-premise market has seen ups and downs. After a decline in September, October shows a tentative recovery. The trend continues: beer and cider are holding up well, while spirits and wine are suffering from consumer caution. Growth, NIQ warns, is driven almost exclusively by prices, not sales volumes.
After a solid summer, the British on-premise sector (pubs, bars, and restaurants) experienced a two-speed autumn, marked first by a decline and then a modest recovery. Consumers are navigating adverse weather conditions, a challenging economic climate, and are increasingly careful about their wallets.
CGA by NIQ's Daily Drinks Tracker data highlights how the return of autumnal weather in mid-September coincided with a slowdown in sales. After a few positive weeks between July and early September, the market recorded two consecutive weeks of decline year-on-year: first, a 1.4% decline in the week ending September 13th, followed by a 3.0% decline in the week ending September 20th.
The first half of October, however, showed signs of recovery, despite difficult weather conditions, including storms Amy and Benjamin. The week to October 11 saw robust growth of 4.5% (higher than the current UK inflation rate), although the following week (to October 18) returned to slightly negative territory at -0.8%.
Overall, sales have grown in nine of the last twelve weeks since the summer, albeit often by modest margins, balancing the negative impact of the weather with positive factors such as the return of university students and major sporting and musical events.
Spirits and wine under pressure
The data analysis confirms a clear trend that had already emerged during the summer: the strong resilience of beer, cider, and soft drinks contrasts with the difficulties of spirits and wine. In September, while overall sales declined, beer remained essentially stable (+1.0% in the first week, -1.0% in the second). A recovery was recorded in the first half of October:
- Beer: +6.1% (until October 11) and +0.5% (until October 18).
- Cider: +8.9% and +0.7% in the same two weeks.
- Non-alcoholic beverages (Soft drinks): +5.9% and +0.6%.
The scenario was very different for other categories. In September, spirits suffered significant declines (-7.1% and -6.2% in the two weeks monitored), while wine recorded even more significant losses (-8.5% and -7.6%). 1.
In October, the pressure eased slightly, but the underlying trend remained unchanged. Spirits fell by 1.1% and 5.9% over the two weeks, while wine posted a mixed performance (+1.2%, followed by -1.5%).
The underlying alarm: growth is driven by prices, not volumes
Beyond the weekly fluctuations, the analysis by Rachel Weller, commercial lead at NIQ, highlights the industry's real challenge. She reiterates a crucial point: the growth seen is largely driven by rising prices rather than increased sales volumes.
This suggests that many consumers remain "money-conscious" and "value-conscious" when choosing to consume out of home. While a decent start to autumn bodes well for the crucial Christmas season, the conclusion is clear: for operators and suppliers, it will be essential not only to offer good value for money, but also to ensure consistently high quality to garner the spending of an increasingly discerning public.
Key Points:
- Sales fell in September, followed by a modest recovery in early October.
- Beer, cider and soft drinks remain highly resilient and drive growth.
- Spirits and wine continue to be under pressure, recording the most significant sales drops.
- Market growth is driven primarily by rising prices, not by a real increase in volumes.
- Consumers remain cautious with their spending and very attentive to value for money.
