The new wheat is arriving: what could change in the dough from September?
It happens every year, always the same way. The first week of September, the place has started to bustle again, and the dough that was rolling smoothly in July begins to act up. The loaves expand in the pan instead of rising. The dough is stretched. The crust doesn't rise as it should.
What happens technically?
There are two distinct phenomena that overlap during this period, and it's useful to keep them separate because they correct differently. The first is the change in vintage. The wheat that enters the mill at the end of summer is harvested between June and July. It has its own profile—protein, specific weight, enzymatic activity—determined by how the growing season went, and that profile is never identical to the previous year's. The mill works to compensate, blending different batches and origins to bring the flour back to the declared parameters. "Within the parameters" means within a range, not a fixed point. For example, a flour sold as W 300 could be 280 in spring and 310 in autumn, remaining perfectly compliant with its technical data sheet. Thirty W points, for those who work 24 or 48 hours, are visible. The second is the maturation of the flour. Freshly milled, flour is not ready. It needs a few weeks of rest for the oxygen to act on the proteins: the thiol groups transform into disulfide bonds, the gluten network strengthens, the dough becomes less sticky and absorbs more water. This same process also leads to the natural lightening of the color, due to the oxidation of carotenoids. During the transition months, the batches turn over more quickly, and the likelihood of receiving slightly "younger" flour may increase.
And the 2026 harvest?
This year, the news is good in terms of quantity, but it poses a threat to the interests of pizza makers. According to estimates by Italmopa, the Italian millers' association, the 2026 national soft wheat harvest is expected to grow by approximately 10%, bringing supply to nearly 3 million tons. This increase is attributable to yields per hectare, while the acreage remains stable at around 500,000 hectares. Francesco Vacondio, president of the soft wheat mills section, reports that the harvest does not present the quality concerns that emerged in some previous years, and that there appears to be no risk of part of the production being downgraded to livestock farming. In other words: no sprouting alarm, good specific weights, and good hygiene and sanitation. Protein content may be slightly lower than initially expected; the increase in yields per hectare tends to dilute the amount of available protein. More wheat, but slightly less protein per grain.
The four signs that flour is changing
You don't need a laboratory. You have to train yourself to look for the right signals.
The dough expands instead of growing. At the same oven temperature and with the same time, the dough balls are lower and wider, and when rolled out they tear near the edge, which means that the gluten mesh is weaker and the tolerance to maturation is reduced.
The dough requires more water—or accepts less. You notice in the mixer that with the same hydration, the dough is softer and stickier than usual, or on the contrary, drier and more woody. Absorption is the variable that shifts first.
The rolling out is tight. The disk springs back, you have to insist, the dough balls seem "nervous" even after the right amount of time. Typically, a higher P/L, often on flours that are more tenacious than the previous batch.
The color during baking is no longer the same. The crust remains pale even with the same oven and time, or it darkens too quickly. Here the suspicion goes to the enzymatic activity, i.e. the falling number. If you recognize only one, wait and observe for two or three more servings. If you recognize two or more in the same week, it's not your yeast.
How to correct it without chasing the dough
The rule that saves the most evenings of all: one variable at a time, for at least three consecutive doughs. Changing water, times, and temperature all at once means losing track of everything, and finding yourself in October with a recipe reconstructed from memory that no one can reproduce anymore. Ask for the technical data sheet for the batch you have in stock, the batch data sheet, with W, P/L, protein, and falling number. Don't switch to the new batch all at once. If you still have bags from the old batch, scale progressively: 25% again for two days, then 50%, then 75%. The dough will gradually shift, and you have time to adjust instead of chasing. Regarding hydration, test first and decide later. Test with a reduced dough, using your exact recipe. If the dough is softer, remove two percentage points and evaluate. If it's drier, add two. Move in steps of two percentage points, never five. If the mesh is weaker, shorten the dough. Reduce the stake, or lower the proofer by a degree, or cut a few hours of maturation. Proteolysis doesn't stop because the evening went badly: if the gluten doesn't last forty-eight hours, reduce it to thirty-six and recalibrate. Keep an eye on the final dough temperature. In September, the tap water drops, and so does the lab. If you don't measure the temperature at the end of the dough with a probe thermometer, you're working blindly in the very month when the margin for error is slim. Write down everything. Date, batch, hydration, final temperature, times of the show and the times of the starch, how it went. Three weeks of notes in September are worth more than ten courses. And next year, when the new wheat returns to do exactly the same things, you'll already have the answer ready. Wheat changes every year. It's the only thing, in pizza, you can count on.
